Junior Guerra Goes to MLB Betting War with Pirates

July 17th, 2019 MLB Baseball

The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Milwaukee Brewers meet tonight in the third game of a four-game MLB betting set at Miller Park. The Bucs took the first two games.

Time: 8:10 PM
Venue: Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Sportsbook odds for MLB betting fans

Pirates +1½ (-185) 9½ (-110) +114
Brewers -1½ (+160) 9½ (-110) -124


On the mound: Trevor Williams (RHP, 3-3, 5.16 ERA, 34 K) allowed the Cubs three runs on two hits and walked one in the first inning on Friday but gave up only two hits in the next scoreless innings. Williams has a 4.06 ERA in his previous seven starts, in which the Pirates are 5-2. This will be his first start versus Milwaukee.

At bat: Outfielder Andrew McCutchen had the NL’s second highest batting average entering Tuesday since being moved to sixth in the batting order on May 26th. He increased his Miller Park hitting streak to 10 games with multi-hit performances in the first two games of the set. McCutchen has home runs in each of those two games, racking up 30 in his career versus the Milwaukee.

Miscellanea: Catcher Francisco Cervelli – who is 7-for-21 with a couple of doubles and a homer in his last six games versus the Brewers – was a late scratch on Tuesday with the flu, but the Bucs hope he can return to the lineup tonight.

Trends for fans who bet on baseball: The Bucs have won and covered in 70% of their last 10 games, and have won two thirds of their last nine on the road and covered in 80% of their last five road games. The MLB betting total has gone over in four of the Pirates’ last five away games.


On the mound: Junior Guerra (RHP, 1-1, 2.84, 21 K) allowed San Diego four runs – three earned – including two homers in the first inning in his previous outing. Turns out it was all a big misunderstanding; after the Venezuelan was explained that ‘Honour thy Father’ doesn’t apply to the Padres, he threw five scoreless innings. Guerra has surrendered five earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his previous three starts in Miller Park. Guerra ranks in the top 10 for highest popup rate and lowest line-drive rate among starters with at least 75 batted balls this season. Most of all, though, he just wants to make his dad, Senior Guerra, proud.

At bat: Baseman Travis Shaw had the only run in the True Blue Brew Crew’s loss on Monday. The Mayor of Ding Dong City’s home run exited the ballpark at 101.4 mph.

Miscellanea: Manny Pina has been catching Guerra lately and the coupling should remain in effect tonight.

Trends for fans who bet on baseball: The Beersmen have failed to cover in their last five overall games as well as their last five at home, and are 1-7 against the spread in their last 8 home games versus the Pirates. The MLB betting total has gone under in eight of their last 12 times hosting Pittsburgh.

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