Los Angeles sits around 90-58 with a massive run differential and the shortest pennant price on the board. As a result, the Dodgers are generally in the elite neighborhood for MLB Futures odds. Milwaukee is 93-56 with the best record in baseball and a run differential near plus-200. Yet the Brewers are still second in the market as oddsmakers respect the Dodgers’ October-proven pedigree and roster construction. Atlanta is 88-61 and third on the board as the NL East leader.
Next, the second offshore betting tier is the wild-card cluster. The Cubs at 83-66 and the Phillies at 82-67 sit in the more favorable range. San Diego is 80-68, and Arizona is 79-70. Hence, both are still alive for the last wild-card spot but are priced like long shots.
If the season ended today, the Brewers and Dodgers would get the byes, Atlanta would host the sixth seed, and Chicago would host Philadelphia. Thus, that bracket is kinder to Milwaukee than the American League bracket is to Tampa Bay. As a result, the Brewers would avoid the other elite club until the Championship Series.
The underlying MLB Future odds betting numbers line up with the prices more cleanly than they did in the American League. Correlate that the Dodgers and Brewers both beat Pythagorean expectation by only a game or two. Atlanta is right on its expected record. Nobody in the senior circuit is running nine wins ahead of their run differential the way the Rays are.
Los Angeles prevents runs and hits for power at an elite level. Milwaukee scores in bunches and has spent the year beating teams by large margins. In comparison, Atlanta’s pitching has kept them in every race even when the offense has been streaky.
So the market isn’t arguing about which teams are best. It is arguing whether anyone can beat the Dodgers in a seven-game series. Milwaukee is the only club getting real money as an answer to that question. Everyone else is priced as a team that has to survive a Wild Card Series and then knock off one of those two just to reach the pennant. Thus, that is why the National League futures board looks top-heavy. By contrast, the American League board still looks like a traffic jam.
Can the Brewers Finally Finish Against the Dodgers?
Certainly, the Brewers have their best chance to slay the dragon of LA. They already have this year. And the regular-season case for Milwaukee is stronger than the pennant price suggests.
To summarize, the Brewers have the better record, the better run differential, and they took the season series four games to three. Including three wins in four at Dodger Stadium in mid-August. If the two clubs finish with the same number of wins, Milwaukee Brewers already owns the tiebreaker. And they would keep the top seed and home-field advantage through the National League Championship Series.
Of course, both teams are headed for byes. So, the most likely path to a pennant meeting is a seven-game NLCS rather than a short series. That format helps the club that has spent six months beating teams by large margins. Instead of surviving one-run games.
However, Los Angeles is still a heavy favorite because of October history and the top of the Dodgers rotation. Oddsmakers assume that when games tighten and the opposing lineup is this good, Los Angeles has the edge. Cause by starting pitching and postseason experience that close the gap that exists on paper in September. That is a real edge. Still, it is not unbeatable.