The Favorite’s Chances in 2010 Kentucky Odds

November 30, 2010 Kentucky Derby

2010 Kentucky odds are heavily tilted towards the favorite. Eskendereya looks great but history has shown the favorite is not always the way to go in Kentucky Derby betting.

2010 Kentucky odds could have Eskendereya as the biggest favorite in the race since 2001.  Normally the favorite struggles in this race but two years ago it was Big Brown winning as a big favorite.  In the past 23 years, the favorite has won just four times. That is not a good percentage at all in the Kentucky Derby. When you look at horse racing on a regular basis you will notice the favorite winning about a third of the time.  With just four wins in 23 races there is no question the Derby is not a race for the favorite. The second choice in the odds actually has just as many wins in the last 23 years as the favorite.

The Kentucky Derby is different than the other two Triple Crown races for the favorite.  In the Preakness the favorite wins almost half the time and in the Belmont the favorite at least wins about a quarter of the time. History has shown that Kentucky Derby betting favorites don’t win that often but things go in cycles.  Just look at what has happened recently with horses that take the non-traditional route.  Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Mine That Bird used different prep races and they ended up winning the Derby.

It used to be in the Kentucky Derby that a well known trainer always won the Derby. That has changed as well with a number of different trainers wining in the last decade.  This year it will be Todd Pletcher trying to break his 0 for 24 streak in 2010 Kentucky odds.  A different jockey has also won the Derby almost every single year this decade.  History can definitely change when it comes to the Kentucky Derby.  The favorite may not have history on his side, but as Big Brown proved two years ago, history can change.  That fact alone gives Eskendereya a chance as the favorite.  Getting only 2-1 on your wager is not very good though and those could be the odds on this very talented Todd Pletcher horse.  Whether he can buck the history of favorites is the question that bettors will need to answer on Derby day, Saturday, May 1st.

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