2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis, odds and predictions

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Right Around the Corner

April 18, 2018 Horseracing, Kentucky Derby

Perceptions continue to change about the top contenders for the Blanket of Roses.  Just two weeks remain until the biggest horse race of the year.  Kentucky Derby Betting favorites continue to evolve and flip.  Reasons for the wild changes include the preliminary races.  Many tracks have their biggest events of the year leading into Derby Day.  Horses that win those runs immediately get bet up.  Whether there is any value in such wagering is doubtful in most cases.  But that is part of the fun of the Derby.  Rational thought and logic go out the window.

2018 Kentucky Derby

Date and Time: Saturday, May 5, 2018, 6:50 p.m. ET

Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds at SBG:  Justify 5/2, Bolt D’Oro 4/1, Magnum Moon 4/1, Mendelssohn 4/1, Audible 6/1, God Magic 6/1, My Boy Jack 6/1

2018 Kentucky Derby TV Coverage:  NBC

Justify

Justify is the justifiable Kentucky Derby Betting favorite at 5/2.  Trained by Bob Baffert this colt is on fire.  Four wins in a row will attract betting action.  Winning the prestigious Santa Anita Derby has made bettors gamblers crazy.  April 7 saw Justify take that biggest race of the year at Santa Anita Park.  Jockey Mike Smith was on board.  Leading wire to wire it was a dominant performance.  Highly touted Bolt D’Oro ran against Justify.  As a result, the new chalk has bona fide credibility.  WinStar Farm LLC is the owner.  Earnings for Justify so far are at $600,000.

Bolt D’Oro

Although running second to Justify at Santa Anita Bolt D’Oro remains a popular choice.  Since early Kentucky Derby futures odds were posted his name has been near the top.  Todd Pletcher as trainer gives this colt instant online sportsbook credibility.  WinStar Farm LLC also owns Bolt D’Oro.  Prior to finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby Bolt d’Oro won the San Felipe Stakes.  A big blemish was his third place run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  He entered as a favorite.  Consequently, the finish was an undeniable letdown.

Magnum Moon

Gaining in respect and betting action has been Magnum Moon.  Most significant is a win in the Arkansas Derby last week.  Public betting dollars have been flowing to this colt ever since.  Pletcher is the trainer for Magnum Moon as well.  Four straight wins have also earned respect.  Included among the payout streak was victory in the Rebel Stakes.  Lowana and Robert Low are the owners.

Trainer AP O’Brien

UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is trained by AP O’Brien.  As an Irish trainer O’Brien often gets overlooked.  Yet his record is among the best anywhere.  Mendelssohn has made big money.  The UAE Derby win paid $2 million.  Last November’s Breeders Cup Juvenile win scored a $1 million payout.  Earlier in March the colt ran to victory in the Patton Stakes.

Noble Indy

One early favorite that has dropped is Noble Indy.  Part of the drop was a third-place finish in the Risen Star.  But this Todd Pletcher trained colt earned redemption in his last run.  March 24 brought a win in the Louisiana Derby Stakes.  Betting activity has followed for Noble Indy’s since.

Matchup to Watch

A dropped favorite can prove to be a Kentucky Derby Betting bargain.  Noble Indy has lost a lot of enthusiasm for the shiny new things.  But no other horses are any more capable.  Gamblers are chasing recent big winners.  Value is settling in for Noble Indy.

Kentucky Derby Betting Odds Picks

Noble Indy is a far more attractive betting value now than a month ago.

Kentucky Derby Betting Online Pick: Noble Indy