Soccer odds sometimes feature very big favorites, and to wager on such teams one must endure a relatively large risk for a relatively small payout. Nevertheless, these soccer betting odds can sometimes offer excellent value simply because big favorites win so consistently. They key to finding value in the soccer lines for big favorites is realizing that no win is guaranteed and searching for value within the soccer betting odds.
The soccer lines for matches with big favorites may be around -650 or even higher. With soccer betting odds such as these it is naturally difficult to win much. Such is the case because the soccer odds dictate that one must risk a very large amount to earn substantial winnings, and many soccer bettors are logically reluctant to risk too much on a single wager.
This hesitancy is useful, because nothing is guaranteed in sports, so even a team listed as a -650 favorite in the soccer odds may lose. Perhaps a star player will suffer an injury, perhaps a player will get sent off early with a red card, or perhaps the team will just fail to play an inspired game.
In other words, as bettors analyze the soccer lines they must acknowledge that there is no such thing as a lock. Some bets certainly have a higher probability of winning than others, but nothing is absolutely certain.
The biggest mistake bettors make when assessing the soccer odds for big favorites is assuming that the game is basically a lock and there is no way the favorite will lose. Once a bettor fully comprehends that the soccer lines for even the biggest favorites are no guarantee, then the bettor will be much better prepared to handicap the soccer betting lines.
The next step in analyzing soccer lines for big favorites is learning to find genuine value in the soccer odds. Just because a team has a very high chance of winning does not mean the soccer odds for that team offer good value. For example, if a team has a two in three chance of winning, but the soccer lines list the team as a -550 favorite, then that wager offers very little value. On the other hand, if a -550 favorite has a 95% chance of winning then wagering on the favorite offers excellent value.
Therefore, to uncover value in the soccer lines one must consider the soccer odds directly, rather than simply predicting the winner of a matchup. Also, bettors can sometimes find value by combining two or three big favorites into a parlay wager. The normally large risk is reduced and the normally small payout is increased with this approach.
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Smith
Published on: November 30, 2010
Last updated: August 19, 2024