Predicting 2011 Belmont Stakes Betting

May 31, 2011 Belmont Stakes

In recent years, Belmont Stakes betting has been more difficult to predict than either Kentucky Derby betting or Preakness betting.

It used to be that the Derby was the race for long shots but in recent years it has been the Belmont.  There has not been a favorite that has won in Belmont betting since 2005.  Will that trend continue on Saturday, June 11th in this year’s Belmont Stakes?

Smaller Fields
The Belmont almost always has the smallest field of the three Triple Crown races and that will be the case again this year. The Kentucky Derby had 19 horses and would have had 20 if not for a late scratch. The Preakness had a full field of 14 horses but this year’s Belmont will likely have 12 horses or less.  Last year neither the Kentucky Derby winner nor the Preakness winner was in the Belmont but this year it is possible that both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford will be in the race on Saturday, June 11th.

No Triple Crown
There will not be a Triple Crown on the line this year and that makes it three years since a horse gave it a try as Big Brown failed in 2008.  Since 1979 there have been ten horses that won the first two races in the Triple Crown only to fall in the Belmont Stakes betting  with Big Brown being the latest in 2008.  He joins Sunday Silence, Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all failed in the Belmont Stakes.

No Longer a Race for Favorites
Predicting Belmont Stakes betting is definitely not as easy as it used to be. The Belmont goes back over 100 years and it used to be that favorites won about 40% of the time in this race. That has not been the case the past decade with favorites flopping on a regular basis.  The last favorite to win in Belmont betting was Afleet Alex in 2005.  This year could be another year where a longshot wins.  This year’s crop of 3-year old horses is one of the worst in recent memory and neither Animal Kingdom nor Shackleford is a great horse.

Don’t forget to make your wagers on this year’s Belmont Stakes race at the Sbg sportsbook.

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