Iowa State goes to Provo on Friday night as a 3-2 team that just won a shootout. While, No. 8 BYU is 4-0 after a College Football Odds matchup that looked nothing like one.
The Cougars are 2-0 in the Big 12. Saturday’s 17-10 win over TCU was a grind. Bear Bachmeier completed 11 of 24 for 62 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Additionally, he carried 15 times for 66 yards and scored both of BYU’s touchdowns. The season profile is still that of a run team.
BYU is averaging 236 rushing yards and only 180 through the air. They are scoring 37 a game and allowing 14. In turn, their run defense has given up 75 yards a game. The TCU result shows the offense can stall. The defense is why they are ranked eighth anyway.
Jimmy Rogers’ Cyclones are 1-1 in the league after Saturday’s 45-42 win over West Virginia. Meanwhile, ISU was led by Aiden Flora scoring five touchdowns. That followed a 31-17 loss to Utah and a 16-13 loss at Iowa. Those were around blowout wins over Southeast Missouri and Bowling Green.
To summarize, Iowa State is a middle-of-the-pack offense. ISU is split between 197 rushing and 194 passing. And it has scored on every red-zone trip. The defense has been fine against the pass and ordinary against the run. The two losses were both one-score or two-score games against better teams. The West Virginia win was the opposite, a track meet.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars NCAAF Betting Information
| Date and Time: | Friday, October 9, 2026, with kickoff at 10:15 p.m. Eastern |
|---|---|
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. |
| TV Coverage: | ESPN |
| Team | Spread | Total | ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones | +10½ ( -114 ) | 46½ ( -111 ) | +320 |  |
| BYU Cougars | -10½ ( -107 ) | 46½ ( -110 ) | -417 | |
| ||||
Iowa State visits BYU on Friday, October 9, 2026, with kickoff at 10:15 p.m. Eastern (8:15 p.m. Mountain) at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. The Offshore Bookmaker matchup is on ESPN and streams on the ESPN app and services that carry it.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars Matchup Analysis
Specifically, this is a personnel-and-leverage college football betting matchup. Instead of a rankings game. BYU just won at TCU while down two starters. Including backs. Subsequently, the center said afterward they didn’t have a real drive until the last one. Iowa State has to decide whether it is playing the 4-0 team on the sheet. Or the thinned-out version that managed 294 yards and punted the game into a 17-10 win.
Indeed, the lever is Bear Bachmeier on called runs, not on dropbacks. With the backs short, BYU went to a quarterback draw on second-and-12 from the 21, and he walked in. Also, he scored from the 9 on third-and-goal after a dead possession. That is the constraint Iowa State’s linebackers have to defend.
Hence, if ISU sits in the run fit and waits for L.J. Martin, who has 344 yards when healthy, Bachmeier is the ball carrier. Iowa State’s answer is not a shootout. It is whether Aiden Flora, 594 yards, can keep the chains moving so Raynor is not the one asked to win a down.
Of course, availability is the swing factor not reflected in the season averages. If the two BYU starters who left the TCU game are back, the draw stops being the offense and Martin becomes the constraint again.
SBG Free Picks
To conclude, Sharps believe that the side leans Iowa State plus the points. Wise Guys say the total leans under. Iowa State’s losses are 16-13 and 31-17, not blowouts. And Aiden Flora just scored five times in a game the Cyclones had no business winning by style. Ten and a half still covers a 24-14 or 27-17 kind of night.
SBG Best Bet: Iowa State Cyclones and Under the Total.