Lincoln Riley arrived at USC in late 2021 with enormous College Football Futures Odds expectations. He was the offensive mastermind who had turned Oklahoma into a consistent playoff threat and developed multiple Heisman winners. The hire was framed as the moment USC would reclaim its place among college football’s elite after years of mediocrity. However, nearly five seasons later, that full return to glory has not yet materialized.
Riley’s teams have indeed produced high-powered offenses and individual stars. Most notably, Caleb Williams’ Heisman season in 2022, which delivered an 11-3 record. But the Trojans have yet to reach the College Football Playoff.
The 2023 season slipped to 8-5 amid inconsistency. 2024 was a transitional year. 2025 improved to 9-4 and a competitive Big Ten showing. Yet USC still ended outside the playoff field. Across his tenure, the defense has too often lagged behind the offense. Critical late-season or high-stakes games have frequently gone the wrong way.
Recruiting has been a strength, culminating in the consensus top-ranked 2026 class. Also, the program has added experienced coaches, such as Gary Patterson, on defense. Continuity at quarterback with Jayden Maiava and a deep returning roster gives this year’s team a legitimate chance to change the narrative. Still, the gap between the original sportsbook hype and the results on the field remains real.
Riley has built a competitive program and kept USC relevant. But the sustained national championship contention that was promised has not arrived. The 2026 season, with its talented roster and tough schedule, is widely viewed as the clearest opportunity yet for him to close that gap.
2026 College Football Futures USC Trojans Future Market Prospects
The 2026 USC Trojans football team, under head coach Lincoln Riley, enters the season with elevated expectations after finishing 9-4 the previous year. Riley is in his fifth season. Most important of all, the program returns substantial production from 2025 and has signed the consensus top recruiting class in the country. USC added a serious veteran defensive coordinator, Gary Patterson.
Preseason rankings generally place the Trojans in the 10 to 14 range nationally. They are widely regarded as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, with odds around +240 to reach the field. However, the demanding Big Ten schedule makes a conference championship a more distant prospect.
Namely, Jayden Maiava returns as the starting quarterback after a strong 2025 campaign in which he threw for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns. While leading the Big Ten in passing yards and posting a high QBR, he earned third-team All-Big Ten recognition. Continuity with Riley and offensive coordinator Luke Huard is a clear advantage.
The running back room features a promising tandem of Waymond Jordan and King Miller. The offensive line brought back significant experience. But a notable setback occurred in early August when projected starting center Kilian O’Connor suffered a season-ending non-contact injury in practice. Tobias Raymond is expected to be a primary option to slide inside, and the unit’s depth will be tested.
At receiver and tight end, the Trojans lost some College Football Odds production to the NFL. But they retain pieces such as Tanook Hines. In addition to transfers and highly regarded freshmen, including tight end Mark Bowman.
Meanwhile, on defense, Patterson’s arrival is the central development. The unit brings back key contributors, adds portal experience, and features a deep freshman class. In turn, improvement on that side of the ball is viewed as essential if USC is to make a serious playoff push.