Football odds are not just something that appears out of thin air. They are made by people that understand the game and the tendencies of gamblers. If you want to win money versus college and NFL odds then you need to understand the football odds maker.
Football odds makers deserve your respect. What you ultimately have to understand about the football odds makers is that they usually know more than you know. They also know what you and the rest of the public are going to do with what you knowledge and they adjust their football odds accordingly to meet consumer demands. For example, if you think that you are going to get some big break on the line because of some injury, dream on, as the football odds makers are full aware of those injuries and have adjusted the college and NFL odds to compensate for the missing players, as well as your likely reaction to them. In fact, oftentimes, the “injured” team is the more valuable team when you bet football odds as they will be getting added value based on the public wanting to go against them, regardless of value or merit.
The football odds makers are well aware of so-called mismatches and how the public will often line up against what is considered to be a weaker team, particularly if the “stronger” team is also at home. The football odds makers know about how the gambling public will want the chalk, and thus will charge more for them to take what they want since there is that increased demand, making the dog the value added play on many occasions. If you think that you are going to outwit the football odds makers with some power favorite you might want to think again.
The football odds makers are well aware of what happened last week and also are aware of how you will react to it. You are not gaining any secret advantage because an underdog clobbered a favorite unexpectedly last week, and in fact you are likely to be too late, as the “secret” went out the door with that game and now there is no value with that team that pulled off the upset. Remember that the college and NFL odds makers already know all of this information.