NFL odds are posted each week at the sportsbook and there are certain things you should do in preparation for wagering against them. Let’s look at some tips for betting NFL odds.
1. Set your own lines first. Before you read the actual opening line in NFL odds you should set your own lines to the games based on what you believe the actual pure merits of the matchup are. Then compare your “pure” line to the actual NFL betting lines. When there is a noticeable difference between your line and the actual NFL odds, you are on the way to uncovering potential value. Keep in mind that the actual NFL odds released by the sportsbooks to the public are not at all “pure” but are instead based on what the oddsmakers believe the public perception will be on those games. You should also set your own over/under totals for the same reason.
2. Monitor line moves carefully. After you have set your NFL betting lines and compared them to what was actually released, you should next monitor the line moves that are occurring throughout the week to track which direction the money is flowing and also get a read on public perception versus the NFL odds.
3. Monitor the conventional spin. It does no harm to go to gambling related chat boards and surf the net and utilize the resources that gamblers are using versus NFL odds. In fact this can be useful in directing you towards value on the NFL odds board. How? Because if the conventional wisdom and media spin is all going in one direction, it is likely that the direction that it is flowing towards is the wrong one.
4. Check pertinent statistics. Always verify which teams are best at rushing, rushing defense, and turnover margin. Regardless of what is trendy, football ultimately is a game that is won and lost in the trenches and with mistakes, (or lack thereof). Teams that can stop the rush, rush the ball and not beat themselves are teams that make for lucky wins versus the NFL odds. Teams that are not are teams that make for “bad beats” versus NFL odds. You will find that defense and special teams make for profits versus NFL betting lines.
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