NFL betting sometimes involves looking at a lot of statistics. One statistic though is critically important and that is turnovers. The team with the fewest turnovers wins in the NFL about 78% of the time. They cover the Nfl betting spread about 75% of the time. All the other statistics in the world don’t measure up to this one factor. Turnovers are everything in football betting. So, how do we figure out which team will have the fewest turnovers in a game? You would think that a team that rarely turns the ball over versus a team that turns it over a lot would be a great wager in Nfl betting. Guess what? You would be wrong. It is exactly the opposite. A team with a poor turnover ratio playing a team with a great turnover ratio is actually a great bet in Nfl betting. It doesn’t make sense, but when do things ever make sense in Nfl betting?
It does take a few games to have working statistics to follow so let’s say four games. You can start in week #5 of the regular season with your Nfl betting. First we need to analyze the turnovers and see how many each team has had in their games. Take that number and divide it by the amount of games played. That is their turnover margin. Some teams will be plus, while others are minus. If you took the team with the worst turnover margin and backed them against the NFL betting spread your winning percentages would have been 53%, 62%, 64%, 55%, 67%, 51%, 54%, 55%, 54%, 46% from 1990 to 2000.
Sometimes in Nfl betting it is best to do the opposite of what you think will work. That is definitely the case when it comes to NFL betting and turnovers.