NFL betting results can oftentimes be influenced by teams taking a week off. It used to be that NFL teams played every single week of the season and you could count on a full slate of games every week in NFL football betting. That has not been the case since the 1990’s and that means you must factor the bye week into your NFL betting.
NFL betting stats can now be looked at in terms of how teams play coming off their bye week. Surprisingly, home teams have not really done very well coming off the bye week. They are particularly poor as home favorites where they are just over 40%. They are better as home dogs though going 57% against the NFL betting pointspread although not as many teams are home dogs as home favorites.
Road teams coming off a bye are about break even in NFL betting. The numbers for road favorites and road dogs are about 50% in NFL betting. What if we add another factor to the bye week and see how teams did coming off a loss or a win, then having a bye week and then playing? Looking at the numbers we see that not much changed in NFL football betting. Home dogs were still good, home favorites poor and road teams just about break even. One area of slight improvement was with road dogs as they inched up to over 56% against the NFL betting pointspread. It could be the extra week motivated the team on the road getting points more than any other situation.
As we examine those numbers we see that teams coming off a bye are a little slow to get going at home in NFL betting. The teams coming off a bye are much better on the road in NFL betting, perhaps because they have to get themselves back ready to play since they have to travel.
Taking those teams makes sense since they have had a while to think about their loss and are now getting points in NFL football betting. That is usually a good spot for the underdog in NFL betting.