Some gamblers prefer to handicap NFL preseason odds based on the results of the previous season; however, this type of NFL preseason betting has several problems. Consequently, one cannot evaluate NFL preseason odds as if there has been no offseason, even though last year’s results may provide some useful insights for your NFL preseason betting.
NFL preseason odds mark the beginning of a new season for the NFL and must be considered as such. Many things can change between one season and the next, and that reality is illustrated every year. For instance, last season neither the Chicago Bears nor the New Orleans Saints even reached the Playoffs, despite having played each other in the NFC Championship the year before. In fact, it is not uncommon for teams that played in the Super Bowl to fail to reach the Playoffs. These changes are due to a variety of factors, including the draft, trades, and simple team evolution, and they are extremely important to recognize as you consider the NFL preseason odds.
It is not meant to be implied that your handicapping of the NFL preseason odds should have absolutely no recognition of the previous season, because such an approach to the NFL preseason odds would also be absurd. For instance, looking to the 2008 NFL season, it is almost certain that both the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots will reach the postseason. Similarly, it is extremely doubtful that teams like the Falcons, 49ers, or Dolphins will pose much of a threat to very many teams. Nevertheless, when considering the NFL preseason odds, it is only this type of broad generalization that should be accepted. Therefore, one should not assume that the Patriots will likely have another undefeated regular season or the Dolphins will struggle to win a game again. If you handicap the NFL preseason odds believing that nothing has changed since the past season, then you will be forced to have a painful realization, probably in the first week of NFL preseason betting, that many teams have, in fact, changed dramatically. If such changes were not present, then there would be little excitement in wagering on NFL preseason odds or even watching the regular season. But because such significant changes are common, it is imperative that you approach the NFL preseason odds with a willingness to let last season be the past and see the new year as a unique season presenting you with new opportunities.