Kickoff is set for 8:40 PM Eastern and Sbg sportsbook opened with New England as a 1 point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5.
Patriots Lack Defense
New England head coach Bill Belichick may be a future hall of famer but he is yet to blend his new young defense together. The Hoodie’s unit ranks an alarming 27th overall for yardage allowed and 28th for points permitted, not the type of numbers handicappers are used to seeing from the Patriots. New England has a record of 2-1 both straight up and with the NFL lines based on the top scoring offense in the NFL.
Quarterback Tom Brady signed a huge contract extension right before the season began and looks to be worth every penny as he has a QB rating of 109.1 and a 67% completion rate with an 8/2 touchdown/interception ratio. His top target has been Aaron Hernandez, who has 13 catches for 16.2 yards per reception average. Wes Welker is back from injury with 3 TD catches. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has added balance to the attack with 4.5 yards per carry average.
Return of the No Names?
Miami’s defense has been its strength with the NFL odds as it ranks 11th for points allowed and 9th against the pass, which makes for an interesting matchup against Brady and company. The defense was key in wins over Buffalo and Minnesota on the road and was reminiscent of Miami’s No Name Defense of Super Bowl lore.
Henne no Greise or Marino
Chad Henne has put up decent numbers at quarterback but does not inspire confidence that he can steal a game in the late stages. Last week he was intercepted in the end zone at the gun in Miami’s 31-23 loss to the New York Jets as 1 point home favorites. Henne has a QB rating of 88.1 and an average of 7.1 yards per attempt. Ronnie Brown has been in top form with 5.4 yards per carry and a TD.
By the Numbers
In this head to head series both Miami and the dog are 4-1 with the NFL lines and the Dolphins have paid out in 7 of their last 8 as a dog.