Ultimately you will find that value is found on the football betting board where the masses are not. Let’s consider NFL betting value and an example from the 2008 season.
NFL betting gamblers usually take the favorites, the power teams and the perennial contenders. The public will also take a team that has become the “flavor of the month” in NFL betting. For example, this past season the NFL betting public became enamored with the Buffalo Bills after they got off to a hot start. ESPN and other major networks interviewed Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards and everyone was talking about the Bills after they got off to a red-hot start in 2008. What oftentimes happens in NFL betting is that a team is not as good as they look. That was the case with the Bills as they collapsed. The Bills not only didn’t make the playoffs, they didn’t even finish the season with a winning record. They were one of those teams that the public falls in love with and takes a while to get off of. It happens all the time in NFL betting.
The same thing happens in college football betting. In fact, college football betting has much more of a “name brand” flavor to it as the masses tend to bet on the traditional powers that they are familiar with and feel that they know.
Along those same lines, understand that the public often misconstrues the NFL betting lines in that they believe that the favorite is always the better team. In many instances that is simply not true. Throughout the NFL betting season you will find many instances where the team with the better record is actually an underdog.
Ascertaining value is part of a gambler's ability to maintain a level head and keep his senses in NFL betting, while ignoring media firestorms. Taking the underdog is usually where you will find value in NFL betting simply because the public likes to bet favorites. That is not always the case though, so you have to be paying attention to the football betting board each week to decide the proper value for each game.
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