NFL betting favorites get the most attention from gamblers betting on NFL football. The bad news for you as a gambler though is that you can’t make money in NFL betting consistently betting on favorites. Why is this and are there any situations where laying the points in the NFL betting is a good idea?
NFL betting favorites don’t make you money in the long run because the public overvalues them. It is really that simple. The NFL betting public tends to wager with a straight up rather than a pointspread mentality and they will always gravitate towards the better team that is at home, regardless of merit or board value. Because the NFL betting public prefers home chalks, the oddsmakers will often raise the lines an extra point or more as sort of a “surcharge” that is passed on to the consumers for their demand. As a result, many times gamblers will make overlays when playing the home chalks in NFL betting.
That doesn’t mean you can’t play some favorites though when betting on NFL football. You just have to pick and choose your spots. Oftentimes a team will do their best as a small home favorite in NFL betting in games against a rival or equal opponent. This is a way to take a good team in NFL betting with a lot of motivation at a lesser price than if, for example, they were playing an out of conference game against a weak opponent, where the competitive fire and sense of urgency may be lacking.
Road favorites can often be a good play because the NFL betting public doesn’t like to take road teams, particularly when having to lay points. In many cases a road favorite will actually be an NFL bargain because of that overall lack of appeal. With a few possible exceptions you must avoid laying points when betting on NFL football if you want to have long-term success.