The Nittany Lions are 8.5 point favorites in college football odds at the Sbg sportsbook.
Penn State is Not Very Good – Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nittany Lions are not very good. They have a coach who belongs in an old folk’s home and a boring team. Penn State is at home though and they are facing an Illinois team coached by Ron Zook so they do have a chance this week.
Penn State Has Won 11 of 13 – The Nittany Lions are 11-2 against Illinois since joining the Big 10. The Nittany Lions have averaged 36.4 points per game against Illinois since 2005. They have scored at least 35 points in each of the past two seasons against Illinois. Last year the Nittany Lions won 35-17 while they won 38-24 two years ago. Illinois pulled off the upset in 2007 winning 27-20.
Neither Team can Score – The Illini run the ball and hope to stay close by playing defense. Their passing offense is 113th in the nation. They do have a good running game led by Mikel Leshoure who has rushed for 478 yards and three touchdowns this season. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points per game while allowing only 18 points per game. The Illini like to run the ball and other teams like to run it against them. That usually means a low scoring game. The problem for Penn State is that they can’t run it.
Illinois has the Recent Trends – The Fighting Illini are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games. The Fighting Illini is 4-1 against the college football odds in their last 5 meetings at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and they are a rotten home favorite going 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
Back to the Total – The trends also point to this game going under the college football betting lines. The Under is 6-1 in Illinois’ last 7 conference games and it is 7-2 in their last 9 road games. The Under is 4-0 in Penn State’s last 4 games overall and six of their last seven at home have gone under.