As the tournament progresses the upsets get fewer as the better teams work through the bracket. As you look at NCAA Tourney odds you will need to pick upsets if you want to be successful with your bracket.
NCAA Tourney odds have the top seeds favored but that doesn’t mean they always win. The top seeds that do win in NCAA Tourney odds usually shoot well and can score. It seems that defense would be important but it is not the key factor when you look at NCAA Tourney odds. Great teams that win the title are able to score. If you are looking at your bracket and considering NCAA Tourney odds, which games are likely to have upsets? There is no doubt that more upsets happen in NCAA Tourney odds when you have teams that can shoot three-pointers. Inferior teams can sometimes steal a game with three-point shooting. Early in the NCAA Tourney odds, most people know about the tendency of 10, 11 or 12 seeds as possible upset candidates. That doesn’t happen much later in the tourney. The last three seasons have seen the 12 seeds do quite well in NCAA Tourney odds. In 2004, two #12 seeds won against 5 seeds in NCAA Tournament odds. Both of those seeds lost in the next round. That same year a #10 seed beat a #7 seed and went on to the Sweet Sixteen. The 2005 tournament had five upsets in the first round of seeding but the popular 12 seed only won once in NCAA Tournament odds. The 2006 bracket had the 12 seeds win twice again in addition to a 10 and 11 seed winning games in NCAA Tournament odds. That was the year the #11 seed George Mason made the Final Four and impacted NCAA Tourney odds. The 2007 bracket was one for favorites in NCAA Tourney odds as no 12 seed won and very few upsets occurred in the first round. The 2008 bracket also was full of favorites winning in the first round although two #12 seeds did win.
What does this tell you when it comes to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight and Final Four in terms of NCAA Tournament odds? It says that in the last few years very few seeds ranked 8th or higher make it to the Sweet Sixteen and even fewer make the Elite Eight or Final Four.