Last year it was North Carolina beating Villanova and Michigan State upsetting Connecticut in Final Four betting. What do the numbers recently tell us about Final Four odds?
Final Four odds show us that the underdog is 10-5 with three games a pick in the last 16 games. Nine of those underdogs won outright. The problem with going with underdogs is that more recently the favorites are 6-4 against the spread the last five years. Top seeds have dominated recently but it has not always been that way in the Final Four. This season has been one where the top seeds have been vulnerable and that could happen this weekend.
If you are going to take the underdogs in Final Four odds then you simply have to look at betting the money line as well. The underdogs split last year as Michigan State won while Villanova lost but that means you made money on the money line. In 13 of the last 16 games in which the underdog covered the spread, they also won the game. Two years ago it worked again as Kansas upset North Carolina while UCLA lost against Memphis. If you split the two games as money line underdogs you are going to make money.
As you consider Final Four betting odds you may also want to bet the total. The over is slightly the way to go recently but not by much. Totals can also be parlayed to the side or the money line in the Final Four and that is something you might want to do. If you like the underdog then perhaps you will parlay them to the under. Or you might take the favorite and the over. This is like the Super Bowl where bettors will parlay the favorite and the over. The sportsbooks don’t like it when the favorite wins in a high scoring game because many bettors look to bet a two-team parlay on the favorite and the over. Last year the parlays did not work as North Carolina covered as the favorite but the game went under. Michigan State covered as the underdog but that game went under. Perhaps this weekend the favorite and the over will be a parlay that works vs. the Final Four odds.