How important is the momentum of a team in the NCAA Tournament versus March Madness odds? Let’s look at the momentum factor as well as another handicapping factor that may be overrated in terms of March Madness betting lines.
March Madness odds are often handicapped by looking at how a team is playing coming into the tournament. People believe that if a team is hot coming into the tourney they will continue to play well. The problem with this theory is that it doesn’t hold water versus March Madness odds. Over the past 10 years in March Madness odds teams that came into the tournament on a roll were actually no better than teams that were “cold.” Momentum sounds good when handicapping March Madness odds but in reality it means nothing. There are a couple of reasons for this. First, the tournament is a do or die situation and teams almost always give it their best effort. Second, the tournament is played about a week after most conference tournaments are over and that is a long time in between games for most teams considering they played every few days during the regular season.
Another factor that is overrated in March Madness odds handicapping is looking at teams that know how to win close games. Gamblers that bet March Madness odds believe that these teams are battle tested and ready to win in the NCAA Tourney. The problem with this theory is that it doesn’t make you any money versus March Madness betting lines. In the last 10 years teams that won a lot of close games during the regular season were just about .500 in the tournament versus March Madness odds. This factor just doesn’t help you pick winners in regards to the March Madness betting lines.
As you look at March Madness odds this season remember that certain factors are oftentimes overrated. A team’s recent performance and how well they perform in close games are just two factors that really can be thrown out when handicapping March Madness odds. Keep that in mind this season as you look at the March Madness betting lines.