Everyone loves to follow March Madness odds early in the tournament and there are some trends that can be helpful in picking winners.
March Madness betting history can tell us a few things when it comes to picking winners in the first round. On a strictly straight up basis, the #1 seeds have never lost to the #16 seeds. Against the March Madness odds the #1 seeds are above .500 and in the past few years they are even better than that. #2 seeds since 2000 have only lost once straight up and they are also solid wagers against the March Madness betting lines. Since 2000 the #3 seeds have lost twice and they have held their own against the March Madness odds. When you get to the #4 seeds vs. the #13 seeds the March Madness betting numbers take a big drop. Since 2000 the #4 seeds have lost eight times including twice last season. If you are looking for a first round upset then you need to seriously consider the #13 seeds in March Madness betting.
In the first round there is always a lot of hype about the #12 seeds upsetting the #5 seeds in March Madness betting. While it is true that #12 seeds have done pretty well overall against the #5 seeds with 12 outright wins the last nine years, recently that trend has gone the other way. In the last six years the #5 seeds are 16-8 straight up and pretty much the same against the March Madness betting lines. Going back farther we see that the #12 seeds have done better but March Madness betting trends change over time and recently the #5 seeds have more than held their own.
Since 2000 the #6 seeds have won two thirds of the time against the #11 seeds. This matchup would seem ripe for an upset but history has shown the #6 seeds do pretty well in the first round. The #7 seeds have done even better when facing the #10 seeds in March Madness betting. In fact, this is the best matchup to wager on in March Madness betting. The #7 seeds are 24-12 straight up since 2000 and almost as good against the March Madness odds. That might surprise you considering how close the #7 and #10 are in seeding. The #8 vs. #9 seed matchup is what you would expect, a toss-up. Actually taking the #9 seed plus the points is usually the way to go in March Madness betting.
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