Let’s take a look at some of the angles that apply to NCAA Final Four odds.
Final Four odds may have North Carolina as the favorite but some of the trends and angles do not support them. Favorites of 7 or more points in NCAA Final Four odds are 1-8 against the spread in the Final Four of late.
Another angle that is worrisome if you are taking North Carolina is that teams that come into Final Four odds having covered all four of their previous games in the tournament are 4-14 ATS in the last 18 games. That Final Four odds angle also applies to Connecticut in their matchup against Michigan State in the 2009 NCAA Tourney. Not all of the Final Four odds numbers are against the Tar Heels though. Teams that are coming off back-to-back straight up underdog wins are only 2-7 against the spread and that situation would apply to Villanova in Final Four odds. Teams that are coming off a single straight up win as a dog are 10-15 against the spread and that obviously applies to Villanova but also applies to Michigan State in Final Four odds. It can sometimes be difficult for teams to continue their winning ways as underdogs when facing superior squads.
Another NCAA Final Four odds angle is against Michigan State in their game against Connecticut. Teams who covered by more than 10 points in the Elite 8 are just 13-21 against the spread and Michigan State fits that situation in Final Four odds. Another Final Four odds angle shows that #1 seeds against non-#1 seeds are 12-6 against the spread and that favors North Carolina and Connecticut.
Looking at the NCAA title game we find that favorites at 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games. Teams that are off back-to-back covers are just 9-14 in the title game against the spread. ACC teams are 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 title games. Big East teams are 3-1 while Big 10 teams are 2-5.
Another interesting Final Four odds angle shows that teams that have scored the most points in the tournament are 11-7 against the NCAA Final Four odds.
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