What makes for surprise teams, either positive or negative versus the NBA odds?
NBA odds are usually overvalued on teams like the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers and undervalued on teams like the Charlotte Bobcats and Oklahoma City Thunder. What has to be remembered against the NBA odds is that straight up results mean very little. It is covering the spread that matters when it comes to NBA basketball odds. The Lakers and Celtics may be great straight up but they don’t always cover the spread. The Thunder might be weak and not win many games straight up but they can cover the NBA odds more often than not.
The goal when wagering against NBA odds is to win money. It doesn’t matter if your team wins the game straight up. What matters is that you cover the spread when betting NBA games. You might not think Oklahoma City can win a game straight up against the Lakers but that really doesn’t matter. Can they cover the double-digit NBA basketball odds? The Knicks might not win against the Boston Celtics but they might be able to be competitive on the pointspread.
Surprise teams can also be teams that are just under the radar a bit like the Milwaukee Bucks. They are not in a major media market so they usually get fair NBA odds. A team in a large market like New York or Los Angeles is not going to go under the radar which is why the Lakers are always overvalued. Los Angeles can end up with the best record in the league yet lose money against the NBA odds.
On the other side of this coin you have teams like Charlotte or Toronto that get little attention and can provide value against the NBA betting odds. The same thing applies to other teams like Atlanta, Indiana and even Utah in NBA odds.
The goal when wagering against the NBA odds is to find value and you can do that with surprise teams. Rarely will you find that value on the popular teams like Boston, the Lakers, Spurs, etc in NBA odds. You must go beyond the obvious when wagering against NBA betting odds if you want to win money on a consistent basis.
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