The Padres lead the National League West and with a good home stand they could virtually put away the division. The Rockies will have something to say about it though as they have been hot against the baseball gambling odds of late and are in the Wild Card race.
The baseball odds are going to favor San Diego on Friday. The Padres will probably be favored in almost every game during their 10-game home stand. They will definitely be favored on Friday at SBG but when you look at the numbers of the two starting pitchers you have to go beyond the obvious in this game.
Friday’s Pitching Matchup: On the surface the pitching matchup on Friday really favors San Diego in baseball gambling. Aaron Cook goes for Colorado while the Padres send Jon Garland. Let’s look at the obvious numbers and then tell you why you might want to ignore them. Cook is 4-8 on the season with a 5.34 ERA. He has not pitched well at all lately but this will be his first start since coming off the DL. Cook is 0-3 with a 13.97 ERA in his last three starts. It would be hard to find worse numbers if you tried. On the other side, Garland is 13-9 with a 3.29 ERA. He is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three starts and against the Rockies in his career he is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA.
Beyond the Numbers – We know the pitching matchup heavily favors the Padres. So why take a shot with Colorado? There are a couple of reasons. First – they are playing great baseball and finding ways to win games. Late in the season is when Colorado really does well and this season has been no different. Second, Cook has simply owned the Padres in his career. True, Cook has sucked recently but he is coming off the DL so he should be healthy. And his numbers against San Diego are great. He is 6-1 in his career at Petco Park and he is 13-4 in his career against the Padres with a 2.86 ERA. The Rockies considered going with Cook on Thursday in a makeup game vs. the Phillies but they held him back because he pitches so well against San Diego. On the surface the Padres look like a great bet in this game against the MLB gambling odds but if you go beyond the numbers the Rockies could be the play.