The trends don’t guarantee you will have success in Kentucky Derby betting but they are a place to begin your handicapping.
2010 Kentucky odds threw everyone a curve last year when Mine That Bird won as a 50-1 longshot. The potential always exists for something like that to happen but in the past ten years the favorites have also done okay in the Derby. This year it will be Eskendereya who gets much of the attention. Trends have changed somewhat in recent years as things you normally could count on didn’t happen. Big Brown came off a big layoff and won the 2008 Derby. It should be noted though that he was the favorite and expected to win. Barbaro also came off a layoff and won in 2006. It used to be a horse never won if they hadn’t raced within the last month.
A trend that was also broken by Big Brown was that a horse had to have raced more than just a few times in his career. Big Brown won the Derby with only three previous starts. It also used to be that a horse had to race on the dirt before winning the Derby. With California having so many tracks with synthetic surfaces this is also becoming less of a factor. Every derby horse will get to train at Churchill Downs before the race so it is not like they have never run on dirt before anyway.
What can be a trend to consider in 2010 Kentucky odds is the size of the field. Some horses simply do not handle large fields very well. A 20-horse field is a cavalry charge to the first turn and a lot of things can happen. Horses that have run in big field seem to handle the Derby better than those that have not. In this year’s field there is also a horse, Lookin at Lucky that seems to find trouble no matter what. In the Kentucky Derby you don’t have to go looking for trouble as it finds you.
Horse racing has changed in recent years and some of the trends that held true simply are not as important anymore. Favorites can win. Horses switching surfaces can win and perhaps in this year’s Kentucky Derby betting, trainer Todd Pletcher can even get a win.