The Kentucky Derby is run on dirt so horses coming from synthetic tracks are oftentimes tough to handicap in Kentucky Derby odds. Let’s look at the synthetic track factor as it applies to the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby wagering the last two years has seen the favorite win, even with the synthetic track issue. All of the tracks in California are now synthetic which makes handicapping the West Coast horses somewhat difficult. How a horse runs on synthetic may not be how he runs on dirt and vice versa. Last year the Breeder’s Cup was run at Santa Anita on a synthetic surface and the results were mixed. Curlin was considered the best horse in the country be he did not like the synthetic track.
When you look at Kentucky Derby odds you are going to see horses that have only run on synthetic tracks. That makes handicapping them very difficult in Kentucky Derby wagering. The 2009 Kentucky Derby will have at least two of those horses in Pioneer of The Nile and Chocolate Candy. How do handicappers treat these two horses in Kentucky Derby wagering? They have never run on the dirt so who knows how they will do. One of the top prep races, the Blue Grass, is run on synthetic so how do you handicap those horses in Kentucky Derby wagering?
What you really must do with horses making the transition from synthetic to dirt is guess in Kentucky Derby wagering. Unfortunately, those guesses are not always correct. Last year people loved Colonel John in Kentucky Derby wagering yet he flopped making the move from synthetic to dirt. This year it could be the opposite as one of the Kentucky Derby wagering favorites, I Want Revenge, seems to love the dirt over the synthetics. Analyzing a track surface change is never easy to do in Kentucky Derby wagering and it doesn’t look to be easy this year either.
There are many factors to consider in Kentucky Derby wagering including the track. Synthetic tracks have made handicapping Kentucky Derby odds more difficult. Now you have just another one of many factors to consider as you look to pick winners in Kentucky Derby wagering. That might be good news for the Kentucky Derby odds as they will be higher, but not so good for handicappers who have even more information to digest.
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