He is likely to be 20-1 or more in Kentucky Derby odds at post time on Saturday, May 1st. He is trained by Todd Pletcher who has a number of horses in the race including the favored Eskendereya.
Kentucky Derby betting facts indicated that Rule is set to be ridden by Ramon Dominguez in the Derby. He was ridden by John Velazquez in the Florida Derby but Velazquez will be aboard Eskendereya. Rule is the son of Roman Ruler out of a Rockcide mare. He has some good overall numbers and is third in graded earnings coming into the Derby. He has won four races in his career and in all four he led from wire to wire. That is a tough way to win the Derby though. Trainer Todd Pletcher believes this horse can win from off the lead but he has never shown that ability.
Rule is going to get some action in Kentucky Derby odds simply because he has a lot of earnings and because Pletcher is the trainer. The problem for anyone betting him is that he looks like a speed horse. And those horses rarely win the Derby. Rule won the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and followed that win up with a third in the Florida Derby. Pletcher has really not given an indication that he is willing to just send Rule to the lead and hope he hangs on. That is too bad since that might be his best chance of winning.
This year’s Kentucky Derby has a lot of speed in it which almost certainly compromises the chances of Rule. When a speed duel happens in a long race, it is almost a given that a horse coming from behind is going to win. Rule has never shown the ability to come from behind and win. If Rule was able to get the lead and slow the race down he might have a chance but with so many other speed horses in the race that seems very unlikely. The only real chance for Rule to win is to go to the lead and never look back. It has been done in the Kentucky Derby but not very often and that is why Rule is one of the longshots in Kentucky Derby betting.