It used to be that being the favorite was the kiss of death in Kentucky Derby betting but that may be changing. In 2008 it was Big Brown going off as the favorite in Kentucky Derby odds and he won easily.
Kentucky Derby odds throughout history have not supported the favorite even though Big Brown did win in 2008. Many unstoppable horses have not won in Kentucky Derby betting. What makes Kentucky Derby betting exciting, but sometimes difficult, is that the favorite is no guarantee. You are handicapping very young horses that really are unpredictable. If the favorites always won in Kentucky Derby odds then there would be a lot more Triple Crown winners than there actually are. The media always hypes two or three horses in the Kentucky Derby and one of them goes off as the favorite. Usually this horse doesn’t win although Big Brown was an exception. It is just very difficult to predict how a young horse will do in a crowded field, in front of a large crowd and at a distance.
Picking favorites in Kentucky Derby odds is always popular even though they rarely win. The problem for handicappers in Kentucky Derby betting is finding the right horse that can beat the favorite. It would seem logical that the tote board would be helpful in finding the winner in Kentucky Derby odds but this is one of those races where the tote board does not help. Gamblers just don’t know how to handicap Kentucky Derby odds because they are so unpredictable. That means the tote board really doesn’t offer you a lot of clues in the Kentucky Derby. In Kentucky Derby odds the favorite is supposed to win about 35% of the time but history has shown that doesn’t happen. In fact, recent history shows the favorite has won less than that percentage in Kentucky Derby odds even with Big Brown’s win in 2008.
If you continually bet favorites in horse racing you are going to lose money simply for the fact they don’t pay enough. Even in Kentucky Derby odds the favorite doesn’t pay that well. The Kentucky Derby odds are higher, simply because of the large field but betting favorites is just not the way to make money in the Kentucky Derby.
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